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福尔摩斯:基本演绎法第一季

Former Afghan interpreter says Taliban tortured him for weeks but U.S. still won't give him a visa_我的网站

中国合伙人

一 |     “9月下旬起,身边不少外贸企业陆续加大结汇力度。    As Massoud walked down a Kabul street one cold Sunday morning, looking for a day job to feed his family, pickup trucks full of armed Taliban members stopped in front of him. He told CBS News the men aimed their AK-47s at him, he was handcuffed, blindfolded and taken to an office of the Taliban's General Directorate of Intelligence.For more than a month, Massoud's family had no idea where he was. They searched everywhere, including hospitals, until they arrived at the Taliban's intelligence department. "After six weeks of searching, they found me at the Taliban's 040 intelligence department," Massoud told CBS News in a phone interview. He said during the first 15 days of his imprisonment, he was "beaten, struck with electric shock sticks, electrocuted, waterboarded and hanged upside down."

First Anniversary Of Taliban Retaking Control Of Afghanistan              
Taliban members ride in a pickup truck during a celebration of the first anniversary of the Taliban's return to power, August 15, 2022, in Kabul, Afghanistan.                    Nava Jamshidi/Getty             
His crime? Massoud worked for the U.S. military as an interpreter from 2011 to 2013, including a year spent working with U.S. Navy SEALs. (CBS News is not using the real name of Massoud or the other former interpreter interviewed for this story to protect them from possible retaliation.)       

"Don't want to see that horror again" 

Massoud said that during interrogations, Taliban intelligence officers told him that, "with my help, the Americans have killed our people, and that I was still spying for the Americans.""I told them, 'You have announced a general amnesty,'" Massoud told CBS News, but he was informed by the Taliban interrogators, "there is no amnesty for you people."                 Massoud was finally released by the Taliban after more than three months of imprisonment, after his brothers signed two separate guarantees promising the Taliban they would bring him back to the intelligence agency if ever asked to do so. CBS News has seen the letters and other documents his family filed with Taliban officials while he was imprisoned."They can find me anytime they wish and put me back in the prison," he told CBS News. "I just don't want to see that horror again." 

"Still in danger"

U.S. Army Sgt. Jordan David Johnson, who has since been honorably discharged, was Massoud's direct supervisor in Helmand province and has written to members of the U.S. Congress supporting his former Afghan colleague's application for a U.S. visa, but to no avail. "Every time I hear from Massoud I feel guilty, because he is still in danger," Johnson told CBS News. "We told them that, 'You help us, and we will help you.' But now we are not, and that is wrong."
afghanistan-interpreters-cbs.jpg              
U.S. Army Sgt. Jordan David Johnson (right), who has since been honorably discharged, is seen during his deployment in Afghanistan's Helmand province, with his Afghan interpreter Massoud (top left) and others.                    Photo courtesy of Jordan David Johnson             
In a September 2022 letter to lawmakers, Johnson said he trusted Massoud then, "and I am proud to call him a friend today," adding that he did not believe the Afghan "poses a national security threat to the United States of America."                      

"They will come after me and my family"

Omar, 32, told CBS News that he worked with the U.S. military from 2008 until 2012 and was deployed alongside U.S. troops in eastern Paktia province. From 2012 until Afghanistan fell back into the Taliban's hands in August 2021, he worked on various projects with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. He was threatened many times for working with the U.S. and was injured in what he believes was an assassination attempt in 2014, after he filed for a U.S. visa. 
    
                                                     
    
                        Afghan women who served with Americans fight for U.S. residency 2 years after Taliban takeover         03:05                            
Despite the threats, which he continued reporting to his supervisors at the embassy, Omar was informed that his U.S. Special Immigration Visa, or SIV, application had been rejected because documents he submitted previously had been deemed fraudulent. He believes it's because he failed a polygraph administered by U.S. officials eight years earlier, and that the process was unfair. "They intentionally make you a criminal," he told CBS News. "You are only allowed to answer their questions with yes and no, and they don't give you a chance to explain." Omar filed an appeal against the rejection of his application in mid-June and is waiting for a response. He urged the U.S. government to "seriously look into our cases and take us into safety," adding that if it doesn't happen, "they will come after me and my family one day."

"Absurd that it takes so long"

During the 20-year war that followed the 2001 U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, thousands of Afghans served as interpreters and translators, working shoulder to shoulder with U.S. troops and diplomats, risking their lives serving on the battlefield and communicating with locals.                       These interpreters were essential to bridge the language barrier, but also to provide cultural context, gather intelligence, negotiate with tribal elders and build trust with local communities. Massoud and Omar both applied for SIVs under a program created by the U.S. Congress in 2006 to offer legal pathways to the United States for Iraqis and Afghans who helped during the U.S. military operations in those countries. But the bureaucracy of the SIV application process has left many applicants frustrated, with little faith in the program.Massoud said his application was rejected due to a lack of documentation from his supervisors, despite Johnson trying to help. He said he submitted the requested documents and has waited for more than 320 days with no update from the U.S. government. "Every time Massoud submits all his documents and we think, 'now we are waiting for his visa to be approved,' then Massoud would contact me again saying, 'I need this and this document, because they keep changing the requirements,'" Johnson said. 
    
                                                     
    
                        U.S. Air Force translator stranded in Kabul opens up about life one year after U.S. withdrawal         03:28                            
"The SIV process is flawed and ridiculous and absurd that it takes so long. These interpreters, their lives are in danger," the former U.S. soldier told CBS News. "We don't do enough for them, and it's very frustrating."

The backlog, and work to improve a "vital program"

"We have surged resources to this vital program, significantly increasing the number of staff dedicated to it. We have reviewed every stage of the multiple step application process to streamline it wherever possible, consistent with U.S. law, and continue to look for areas to improve," a State Department spokesperson told CBS News.The official said the steps had enabled the State Department to issue "nearly 34,000 SIVs to principal applicants and their eligible family members" from the beginning of the Biden administration until August 1, 2023.                      As of the end of March, State Department figures show about 9,800 principal SIV applicants had cleared a major hurdle in the process, securing Chief Of Mission (COM) approval. Those individuals are "awaiting further processing and their eventual visa interview before being issued an SIV," the spokesperson said, adding: "We are working to process these cases as quickly as possible."The State Department's figures show that another 69,000 principal applicants were undergoing the review process, and the spokesperson told CBS News that, historically, about half of the applications who reach that stage of the process do not end up qualifying for an SIV.According to the figures, 3,241 Afghan applicants were "deemed unqualified to receive COM approval or had the approval revoked during the second quarter" of 2023."The Department will continue to ensure Afghan SIV applications are processed as quickly as possible in accordance with the statutorily required program parameters and national security requirements," the spokesman told CBS News. A report issued this week by a State Department inspector general said, meanwhile, that according to the department's own estimation, as of April 2023, a total of "more than 840,000 principal and derivative SIV applicants remained in Afghanistan."CBS News' Tucker Reals and Paulina Smolinski contributed to this report.                                  。究其原因,一是他们发现在美联储重启降息周期后,10年期美国国债收益率一度跌破4%,美元理财的收益优势开始减弱;二是在美联储降息后,人民币对美元汇率上涨突破7.15—7.30的盘整区间,大家开始预期人民币汇率或将补涨,纷纷提前行动以锁定较高的结汇价格。”陈琦告诉记者。                   在9月中旬美联储年内首次降息后,陈琦一直纠结“是否有必要尽早结汇”。                   陈琦是从事消费电子产品生产出口的浙江企业家。“十一”假期期间,她向多位金融机构朋友咨询,得到的回复普遍是“鉴于美联储重启降息周期与美元贬值压力加大,尽早结汇不失为提前锁定较高结汇价格的好办法”。                   陈琦迅速做出决定——先将30%的美元货款结汇。                   张韵是一家股份制银行华东地区分行的对公业务主管,长期参与外贸企业资金兑换业务。她同样感受到外贸企业结汇意愿显著回升。“十一”假期后,她经手的不少外贸企业都开始加大结汇力度。

二 | 此前,这些外贸企业采取“非必要不结汇”策略,因为他们认为美元理财的收益率高于境内人民币理财。“如今,这种状况已发生180度转变。

三 | 外贸企业已经意识到美联储重启降息周期将压低美元理财收益率。当美元理财不再受追捧,大量外贸美元货款就有了结汇回流境内的需求。”张韵直言。                   理财收益利差牵动结汇意愿                    与陈琦类似,福建地区大豆加工企业财务总监顾毅调整了大豆进口采购环节的汇率风险管理策略。                   每年,这家大豆加工企业需从拉美地区进口12船大豆。为了对冲汇率波动风险,以往他们采取“一船押注人民币升值,一船押注美元升值”的平衡策略。

四 | 但在美联储重启降息周期与美元贬值压力加大的共振下,顾毅计划将未来6船大豆进口采购都押注人民币对美元汇率升值。

五 | “我们还准备在10月内,对出口高蛋白饲料的50%美元货款完成结汇,避免未来人民币对美元汇率升值所造成的结汇金额缩水损失。

六 | ”顾毅说。                   面对全球贸易关税争端迭起与国际地缘政治风险升级,今年以来中国外贸的韧性依旧十足。                   海关总署发布数据显示,今年前8个月,中国对外货物贸易的顺差金额达到7871亿美元,高于去年同期的6095亿美元。

七 | 与此对应的是,今年前8个月,外贸企业的外币净收入额达到2549亿美元,较去年同期显著增长。                   但是,这些数据并未转化为外贸企业结汇率的显著增加。

八 |                    记者注意到,今年前8个月,外贸企业平均结汇率为53.7%,较去年的全年均值小幅回升约0.5个百分点。

九 |                    张韵认为,之所以出现这种状况,一是美联储在今年前8个月迟迟不降息,导致美元货币基金与美债投资收益率保持在4.5%以上,较境内人民币存款利率与国债投资高出逾2.7个百分点,吸引外贸企业持续追捧美元理财,获取更高的无风险收益;二是面对上半年美元指数下跌10.8%,人民币对美元汇率升值幅度约1.9%,主要徘徊在7.15—7.30区间上下波动,无形间减弱了外贸企业的结汇意愿。“外贸企业结汇意愿高企,往往出现在人民币对美元汇率快速大幅升值及相关预期强烈阶段。”张韵说。                   陈琦告诉记者,在9月美联储年内首次降息前,她从未有过主动尽早结汇的念头。

十 | 除了因支付上游原材料与员工薪酬费用而不得不结汇,她将大部分美元货款留在企业境外账户或香港子公司,用于投资美元货币基金与美国国债。“整个上半年,美元货币基金给我带来的年化收益约4.6%,比同期境内人民币存款利率高出逾2.8个百分点。这诱惑其实很大——毕竟,企业的消费电子产品出口业务净利润率仅有3%到4%。”她直言。                   她还发现,不少外贸企业同行干脆参与新的利差套利操作。

十一 | 他们一面以3%到3.2%的年化贷款利率从境内银行获取经营性贷款,用于维持企业日常经营,一面将更多外贸美元货款留在企业境外账户,用于投资美元货币基金与美债理财产品以获取逾4.5%的年化回报,如此他们可以轻松获得至少1.3个百分点的无风险利差收入。                   然而,在9月美联储重新扣动降息扳机后,外贸企业对美元理财的热衷度出现180度转变。“9月下旬起,身边不少外贸企业陆续加大结汇力度。究其原因,一是他们发现在美联储重启降息周期后,10年期美国国债收益率一度跌破4%,美元理财的收益优势开始减弱;二是在美联储降息后,人民币对美元汇率上涨突破7.15—7.30的盘整区间,大家开始预期人民币汇率或将补涨,纷纷提前行动以锁定较高的结汇价格。”陈琦告诉记者。                   这也让她萌生了尽早结汇的念头。

十二 | 通过“十一”期间的咨询,节后她迅速加入结汇阵营。                   陈琦表示,吸引她做出尽早结汇决定的一大因素,是A股赚钱效应日益增强。多位金融机构朋友告诉她,当前A股红利策略热门股的股息率稳定在4%到5%,加之资金持续涌入,相关红利策略热门股股价有望继续上涨,令其综合回报率不亚于美元货币基金与美国国债。于是,她打算先将30%的美元货款结汇,投向挂钩红利策略的含权理财产品或基金。                   “在投资境内人民币理财产品前,我专门看了新闻报道,发现美联储降息与美元贬值压力已驱动境外资金纷纷投资港股A股。

十三 | 或许,我们也需要尽快调整市场认知——以往的美债高息与美元坚挺时代已经落幕,现在轮到中国资产扬眉吐气。                   汇率波动避险                    最近两周,张韵感受到外贸企业结汇意愿与结汇力度显著提升。

十四 |                    她透露,“十一”假期后,越来越多的外贸企业不再对结汇金额“精打细算”,而是一次性结汇逾1/4的美元货款。尤其在近日人民币对美元汇率中间价持续上涨并突破7.1整数关口后,外贸企业的结汇力度水涨船高。                   10月15日,人民币对美元汇率中间价报在7.0995,自去年11月以来首次突破7.1整数关口。                   陈琦认为,这也印证自己尽早结汇的决定相当“明智”。                   近期,受日本、法国政局不确定性风险增加影响,日元、欧元的下跌反而助攻美元指数一度反弹至99上方,令人民币对美元汇率回落至7.14附近,这反而令外贸企业抓住机会加大结汇额度。有外贸企业认为,10月底美联储降息将令美元重回跌势,到时人民币汇率重启涨势,自己的结汇金额将相应缩水。                   但是,也有外贸企业对尽早结汇“心有余而力不足”,一是购买的美元理财产品在年底到期结算,无法在当下开展结汇操作,二是担心近日贸易关税争端再起将压低人民币汇率,转而采取观望策略。

十五 |                    “针对这种状况,我们一面向外贸企业提供外汇期权等远期结汇工具,帮助他们提前锁定年底结汇价格,执行价格主要在7.10—7.12之间,符合他们期望的结汇价格目标;一面提醒他们不要盲目赌人民币汇率,导致企业的汇率风险加大。

十六 | ”长期从事外贸企业外汇套保方案设计的城商行金融市场部主管张洪磊对记者表示。                   此外,针对外贸企业的业务特点与资金周转需求,张洪磊所在的城商行着手设计定制化的远期结汇方案,帮助他们通过多元化远期结汇工具锁定不同业务节点资金回笼的结汇价格。                   宁波地区一家家居出口中小企业的负责人向记者坦言,远期外汇工具固然能帮助他们获取较好的结汇价格,但在实际操作过程中,小微外贸企业仍遇到两大操作痛点:一是中美利差持续倒挂,导致远期结汇价格大幅贴水,令企业的锁汇操作成本相对较高;二是外贸企业办理远期结汇业务需缴纳保证金,导致他们财务负担与资金占用压力相应增加。                   记者多方了解到,在当地相关部门支持下,宁波地区部分银行着手提供外汇期权费补助,帮助外贸企业降低办理远期结汇业务的资金开支。                   张洪磊向记者表示,随着远期结汇工具的持续普及,外贸企业不再赌人民币汇率,而是通过综合性外汇套保方案锁定合适的结汇价格,以及稳健的汇兑收益。                   中国央行发布数据显示,9月,企业外汇套保比率约为30%,较2020年的17%显著提升。

十七 |                    中国央行货币政策司负责人表示,未来,央行与国家外汇管理局将持续大力引导企业和金融机构树立汇率风险中性理念,指导金融机构积极为中小微企业提供汇率避险服务。

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